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Recession does not equal crisis

A Recession Does Not Equal a Housing Crisis

A Recession Does Not Equal a Housing Crisis

Some Highlights from the chart below

 

  • The COVID-19 pandemic is causing an economic slowdown.
  • The good news is, home values actually increased in 3 of the last 5 U.S. recessions and decreased by less than 2% in the 4th.
  • All things considered, an economic slowdown does not equal a housing crisis, and this will not be a repeat of 2008.

Does Not Equal

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5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time

5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time

With all of the volatility in the stock market and uncertainty about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), some are concerned we may be headed for another housing crash like the one we experienced from 2006-2008. The feeling is understandable. Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at the real estate consulting firm Meyers Research, addressed this point in a recent interview:

“With people having PTSD from the last time, they’re still afraid of buying at the wrong time.”

There are many reasons, however, indicating this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are five visuals to show the dramatic differences.

1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.

During the housing bubble, it was difficult NOT to get a mortgage. Today, it is tough to qualify. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association releases a Mortgage Credit Availability Index which is “a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.” The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage. As shown below, during the housing bubble, the index skyrocketed. Currently, the index shows how getting a mortgage is even more difficult than it was before the bubble.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | MyKCM

2. Prices are not soaring out of control.

Below is a graph showing annual house appreciation over the past six years, compared to the six years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation has been quite strong recently, it is nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | MyKCMThere’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.6%, so while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating beyond control as it did in the early 2000s.

3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory which is causing an acceleration in home values.5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | MyKCM

4. Houses became too expensive to buy.

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fourteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased and the mortgage rate is about 3.5%. That means the average family pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a graph showing that difference:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | MyKCM

5. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as a personal ATM machine. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over fifty percent of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here is a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out over $500 billion dollars less than before:5 Simple Graphs Proving This Is NOT Like the Last Time | MyKCMDuring the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owned was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a rash of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. That can’t happen today.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.

Ezra Bailey

New Homes Coming to the Housing Market This Year

Housing Market Update

The number of building permits issued for single-family homes is the best indicator of how many newly built homes will begin to come to market over the next few months. According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development Residential Construction Report, the number of building permits issued in January was 1,551,000. This is a 9.2% increase from December.

How will this impact buyers?

New inventory means more options. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explained how this is good news for the housing market – especially for those looking to buy:

“More construction will mean more housing inventory for consumers in the later months of this year…Spring months could still be quite tough for buyers since it takes time to convert housing starts into actual housing completions.”

How will this impact sellers?

More inventory means more competition. Yun continues to say:

“As trade-up buyers move into these newly completed homes in the near future, their existing homes will be released onto the market.”

Today, because of the tremendous lack of inventory, a seller can potentially anticipate:

  1. great sale price on their house as buyers engage in potential bidding wars.
  2. quick sale as buyers have little inventory to choose from.
  3. Fewer hassles as buyers want to smoothly secure a contract.

Bottom Line

If you’re considering selling your house, you’ll want to list sooner rather than later. This way, you’ll get ahead of this new competition coming to market and ensure the most attention toward your listing and the best price for your house.

silhouette of man looking out window with flare

Impact of the Coronavirus on the U.S. Housing Market

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused massive global uncertainty, including a U.S. stock market correction no one could have seen coming. While much of the news has been about the effect on various markets, let’s also acknowledge the true impact it continues to have on lives and families around the world.
With all this uncertainty, how do you make powerful and confident decisions in regard to your real estate plans?

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) anticipates:

“At the very least, the coronavirus could cause some people to put home sales on hold.”

While this is an understandable approach, it is important to balance that with how it may end up costing you in the long run. If you’re considering buying or selling a home, it is key to educate yourself so that you can take thoughtful and intentional next steps for your future.

For example, when there’s fear in the world, we see lower mortgage interest rates as investors flee stocks for the safety of U.S. bonds. This connection should be considered when making real estate decisions.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):

“The Fed’s action was expected but perhaps not to this degree and timing. And the policy change was consistent with recent declines for interest rates in the bond market. These declines should push mortgage interest rates closer to a low 3% average for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage.”

This is exactly what we’re experiencing right now as mortgage interest rates hover at the lowest levels in the history of the housing market.

Bottom Line

The full impact of the Coronavirus is still not yet known. It is in times like these that working with an informed and educated real estate professional can make all the difference in the world.

Open front door to classic style home.

The #1 Reason to List Your House Right Now

Should You List Now?

The success of the U.S. residential real estate market, like any other market, is determined by supply and demand. This means we need to look at how many potential purchasers are in the market versus the number of houses that are available to buy. With early 2020 housing data now rolling in, it’s quite evident there are two big stories impacting this year’s residential real estate market:

1. Buyer demand is already extremely strong
2. Housing supply is at a historically low level

Demand

ShowingTime is a firm that compiles data from property showings scheduled across the country. The latest ShowingTime Showing Index reveals how showings have increased in each of the country’s four regions for five months in a row.

Supply

Move.com also just released information indicating that the number of homes currently for sale has declined rapidly and now sits at the lowest level in almost a decade. They explained,

“National housing inventory declined 13.6 percent in January, the steepest year-over-year decrease in more than 4 years, pushing the supply of for sale homes in the U.S. to its lowest level since realtor.com began tracking the data in 2012.”

In response to these numbers, Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, said,

“Homebuyers took advantage of low mortgage rates and stable listing prices to drive sales higher at the end of 2019, further depleting the already limited inventory of homes for sale. With fewer homes coming up for sale, we’ve hit another new low of for sale-listings in January.”

The decrease in inventory impacted every price range, too. Here’s a graph showing the data released by move.com:The #1 Reason to List Your House Right Now | MyKCM

Bottom Line

Since there’s a historic shortage of homes for sale, putting your home on the market today could drive an excellent price and give you additional negotiating leverage when selling your house. Let’s get together to determine if listing your house now is your best move.

5 colored price sticker houses on the white background. Eps 10 vector file.

How Pricing Your Home Right Makes a Big Difference

Even though there’s a big buyer demand for homes in today’s low inventory market, it doesn’t mean you should price your home as high as the sky when you’re ready to sell. Here’s why making sure you price it right is key to driving the best price for the sale.

If you’ve ever watched the show “The Price Is Right,” you know the only way to win the game is to be the one to correctly guess the price of the item up for bid without going over. That means your guess must be just slightly under the retail price.

Pricing Your Home

When it comes to pricing your home, setting it at or slightly below market value will increase the visibility of your listing and drive more buyers your way. This strategy actually increases the number of buyers who will see your home in their search process. Why? When potential buyers look at your listing and see a great price for a fantastic home, they’re probably going to want to take a closer look. This means more buyers are going to be excited about your house and more apt to make an offer.

When this happens, you’re more likely to set up a scenario with multiple offers, potential bidding wars, and the ability to drive a higher final sale price. At the end of the day, even when inventory is tight, pricing it right – or pricing it to sell immediately – makes a big difference.

Here’s the other thing: homeowners who make the mistake of overpricing their homes will eventually have to lower the prices anyway after they sit on the market for an extended period of time. This leaves buyers wondering if the price drops were caused by something wrong with these homes when in reality, nothing was wrong, the initial prices were just too high.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling your home this year, let’s get together so you have a professional on your side to help you properly price your home and maximize demand from the start.

Korean girl looking under bed with flashlight

Where Have All the Houses Disappeared To?

Where are the houses for sale?

If you’re following what’s happening in the current housing market, you’ve seen how the lack of newly constructed homes is a major reason there’s a shortage of housing inventory available to today’s buyers. Another reason is that the inventory of existing homes for sale is shrinking. According to the most recent Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales are up 10.8% from the same time last year. That exceeds expectations and is great news.

The troubling news from the report is that the sold inventory is not being replaced. As NAR explained,

“Total housing inventory at the end of December totaled 1.40 million units, down 14.6% from November and 8.5% from one year ago. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from the 3.7-month figure recorded in both November and December 2018. Unsold inventory totals have dropped for seven consecutive months from year-ago levels, taking a toll on home sales.”

The situation was also addressed in a recent Zillow article stating,

“The number of for-sale homes in the U.S. is at its lowest point in at least seven years, and the shortage appears poised to get worse before it gets better.”

Bill McBride of Calculated Risk further noted,

“Inventory always decreases sharply in December as people take their homes off the market for the holidays. However, based on the data I’ve collected, this was the lowest level for inventory in at least three decades (the previous low was 1.43 million in December 1993).”

Why is inventory falling so dramatically? I thought the housing market had softened.

A year ago, that was the case – but the market shifted again. Skylar Olsen, Director of Economic Research at Zillow, explains,

“A year ago, a combination of a government shutdown, stock market slump and mortgage rate spike caused a long-anticipated inventory rise. That supposed boom turned out to be a short-lived mirage as buyers came back into the market and more than erased the inventory gains. As a natural reaction, the recent slowdown in home values looks like it’s set to reverse back to accelerating growth right as we head into home shopping season with demand outpacing supply.”

What does this mean if you’re a homeowner thinking of selling?

Now is a great time to consider putting your home on the market. The competition (number of houses on the market) has not been this low in decades. It’s best not to wait for the inventory (both existing homes and new construction) to increase in the spring, as it always does.

Bottom Line

The supply of homes for sale is at a historic low. Buyer demand is surprisingly strong. Now would be a great time to sell.

Spring 2018 Home-Buying Season to Be Marked by Low Inventory

Home buying activity tends to pick up in the spring, as more and more buyers shake off the winter chills and prepare to enter the real estate market. This year, the spring home-buying “season” will be marked by low inventory across much of the country. And that will keep things competitive for home buyers seeking a property to purchase.

42: Number of Months Inventory Has Declined

Inventory has been the big housing headline for the last couple of years. And real estate markets nationwide continue to contract, as demand outweighs the supply of homes for sale.

According to Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com, inventory within the nation’s housing market has been dropping steadily for years.

“This year [2018] there is even less inventory than last year,” she told Forbes recently. “According to our February 2018 data inventory is down 8.5% from last February.”

According to Hale, housing market inventory (the number of homes listed for sale) has declined for 42 consecutive months. That’s nearly a four-year trend!

Granted, these are national averages. Housing trends and conditions can vary widely from one city to the next. For instance, larger metro areas tend to have more demand for housing, and often less inventory, than smaller surrounding cities. And the big tech hubs — like Austin, Seattle, and Denver — are among the tightest real estate markets in the country as we enter spring 2018.

Tight inventory is affecting sales volume too. “We expect little growth in sales in 2018, given tight inventories,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.

There has been an uptick in new construction permits nationwide. But it will be a while before this has any measurable impact on housing markets across the country.

According to Aaron Terrazas, as the senior economist at Zillow:

“New construction has showed signs of perking up, but remains well below estimates of demand. More importantly, builders face rising labor, materials and land costs making it difficult to build at a price point attractive to entry-level buyers.”

What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

For home buyers, these trends highlight the importance of working with an experienced real estate agent when making a purchase. An agent can help you navigate the local real estate market and make a strong offer in a timely fashion. This is the key to success in a tight, competitive housing market. And those are the kinds of conditions we are seeing nationwide, as we enter the spring home-buying season.

Sellers can benefit from the high demand and relatively low supply we are seeing right now. Under these conditions, homes tend to sell faster and for a higher percentage of the initial list price. Multiple-offer situations are also more common when housing demand exceeds the available supply.

All in all, it should be an interesting spring for the real estate market.

The Benefits of Staging When Selling a Home

Seller’s market conditions persist in cities across the country, as inventory continues to fall short of demand. Under these kinds of conditions, sellers typically enjoy competing offers from buyers.

But that doesn’t mean sellers should skimp on the home staging. By staging your house for buyers, you can increase the chance of a quick sale and a full-price offer. And those are good things!

What Is Home Staging?

Home staging is when you take proactive steps to make your house more appealing to the majority of buyers. “Majority” is the key word here. Some people will dislike a certain property no matter what kind of staging is done. Taste is subjective, after all. But there are certain steps you can take to make your property appeal to the majority of potential buyers. And that’s precisely what home staging is all about.

The staging process can include such things as:

* Landscaping the yard, when applicable
* Painting the inside and/or outside of the house
* Replacing outdated fixtures with modern ones
* Arranging, adding, or removing furniture to maximize space
* De-cluttering the entire house
* Cleaning the house thoroughly from top to bottom

In some cases, these kinds of actions might be unnecessary or even cost-prohibitive. For example, a new or recently updated home with modern fixtures won’t require any new knobs, sink handles, or light fixtures. But an older home with outdated fixtures might need extra attention (unless the fixtures are antiques that add charm).

What’s the Point?

Now you know what home staging is, and what it involves. But what’s the point? What can you get out of it, as a home seller?

As a seller, your mission is to sell your house as quickly as possible, and for the best possible price. Staging can help you achieve these goals and in several ways. It creates aesthetic value, which helps to support your asking price. It presents your home in the best possible light, which will make buyers more inclined to make an offer.

Above all, effective home staging helps you set your house apart from others that are listed for sale in the area. This is especially important in a crowded market with many similar properties for sale.

When buyers look at a well-staged home, they tend to say things like:

  • “I got a great vibe from that house.”

  • “I didn’t want to leave.”

  • “I could see myself living there.”

  • “The owners have taken good care of that house.”

  • “It seems nicer than the other homes we’ve looked at.”

This is the kind of mindset that can lead to an offer.

Home staging allows you to create a favorable impression in the mind of potential buyers. And these kinds of impressions tend to “accumulate” as the buyer moves through the home. So if you stack enough of them in your favor, you’ll have a much better chance of landing a strong offer. And that’s your primary goal as a seller.